技术经济与管理研究

温室效应已成为全球经济和环境可持续发展的重要挑战，而能源行业结构转型则是实现绿色低碳发展目标的必然选择。在多主体协同驱动机制下基于“政府—新能源行业—传统能源行业”三方主体，建立随机演化博弈模型，引入It??随机微分方程理论，对各博弈方行为策略的稳定性条件进行分析，并借助数值仿真探讨关键因素对策略演化路径及收敛速度的作用机制。研究表明，新能源行业对随机扰动较为敏感，传统能源行业次之，政府受到的影响较小；政府在能源行业结构转型中发挥着不可替代的引导作用，但过度依赖政府支持不利于能源行业的可持续发展；合作收益与成本的动态变化通过行业异质性引致策略分化，新能源行业对收益成本的变动高度敏感，而传统能源行业则主要表现为演化速度的变化。基于此，从政策引导、行业互动及市场机制等多方面为推进能源行业结构转型提供理论参考。

The greenhouse effect has become an important challenge for the sustainable development of the global economy and environment,and the structural transformation of the energy industry is an inevitable choice to achieve the goal of green and low-carbon development. Under the multi-agent collaborative driving mechanism,a stochastic evolutionary game model is established based on the tripartite subject of "government-new energy industry-traditional energy industry". The It?? stochastic differential equation theory is introduced to analyze the stability conditions of the behavior strategies of each game party,and the mechanism of key factors on the evolution path and convergence speed of the strategy is discussed by means of numerical simulation. The research shows that the new energy industry is the most sensitive to random disturbance,followed by the traditional energy industry and the government. The government plays an irreplaceable guiding role in the structural transformation of the energy industry,but over-reliance on government support is not conducive to the sustainable development of the energy industry,the dynamic changes of cooperation benefits and costs lead to strategic differentiation through industry heterogeneity.The new energy industry is highly sensitive to the changes in benefits and costs,while the traditional energy industry is mainly characterized by changes in evolution speed. Based on this,it provides a theoretical reference for promoting the structural transformation of the energy industry from the aspects of policy guidance,industry interaction and market mechanism.