技术经济与管理研究

在全球产业链重构与制造业高质量发展的双重背景下，基于2012—2023年我国省级面板数据，实证检验人工智能对制造业产业链韧性的作用机制与影响效应，并构建多期双重差分模型，分析人工智能对制造业产业链韧性的影响。研究发现：人工智能能够促进制造业产业链韧性提升，且随着制造业产业链韧性水平的不断提高，其产生的推动作用呈现“边际效应递增”特征；人工智能可通过增加研发投入、推动产业结构高级化，助力制造业产业链韧性提升；政府干预程度负向调节人工智能对制造业产业链韧性的促进作用；人工智能政策也会显著推动制造业产业链韧性提升，且人工智能试验区政策实施过程，可通过提升人工智能水平，对制造业产业链韧性产生协同促进作用。

Under the dual background of global industrial chain reconstruction and high-quality development of manufacturing industry.Based on China's provincial panel data from 2013 to 2023,this paper empirically tests the mechanism and effect of AI on the toughness of manufacturing industry chain,and further analyzes the policy impact of AI policy on the toughness of manufacturing industry chain by constructing a multi-stage double difference model. The research shows that AI can promote the toughness of the manufacturing industry chain.With the continuous improvement of the toughness of the manufacturing industry chain,its driving effect presents the characteristics of "marginal effect" increasing. AI can promote the toughness of the manufacturing industry chain by enhancing the R&D intensity of enterprises and promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. The degree of government intervention negatively regulates the promotion of AI on the toughness of manufacturing industry chain. The AI policy also significantly promotes the toughness of the manufacturing industry chain,and the implementation of the AI pilot zone policy will improve the level of AI,which has a synergistic effect on the toughness of the manufacturing industry chain.